Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Risks Drop To $100,000 As Whale Doubles Down On Short Position

Bitcoin (BTC) slumped back into the red on Tuesday as market sentiment soured after President Trump threatened to call off a scheduled meeting with Xi Jinping. The flagship cryptocurrency reached an intraday high of $114,082 on Tuesday before settling at $108,362. 

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin whale, known as the “Trump insider,” has doubled down on their short position, raising it to 2,100 BTC, worth $227 million. 

Bitcoin Chart Echoing 1970 Soybean Bubble: Peter Brandt 

Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin’s price chart is showing similarities to the soybean market from the 1970s. The soybean market saw prices top before dropping 50% as supply began to outweigh demand. However, Bitcoin analysts are confident of further upside. Brandt stated during an interview, 

“Bitcoin is forming a rare broadening top on the charts. This pattern is famous for tops. In the 1970s, Soybeans formed such a top, then declined 50% in value.”

Brandt warned that if Bitcoin follows a similar pattern, it could leave several companies, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy, underwater. Strategy’s stock is down over 10% over the past 30 days as corporate Bitcoin treasuries face growing pressure thanks to a drop in net asset values. 

Brandt also warned that the big Bitcoin rally that traders are waiting for may never come. Instead, the trader warned of a drop that could take prices as low as $60,000. However, most analysts agree that Bitcoin has one major rally left in this bear cycle, which could take it to $250,000. 

Sentiment At Extreme Fear 

“Uptober” has failed to improve market sentiment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index posted a score of 25, putting it firmly in “extreme fear” territory. Bitcoin trading account AlphaBTC stated in a post on X, “Bitcoin really needs to hold here, keeping the recent higher lows in tack and have another attempt at the monthly open where it was rejected yesterday.”

However, not all analysts are bearish. David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, believes Bitcoin’s “opportunity window” may open up again if the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows signs of relief. Analysts predict a 3.1% year-over-year increase for September. Markets are already expecting a 25 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve following the FOMC meeting next week. Rate cuts are typically beneficial for assets like BTC. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Register Inflows 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded fresh inflows on Tuesday as BTC briefly crossed $114,000. According to data from SoSoValue, the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $477 million in net inflows on October 21, breaking a four-day outflow streak that registered over $1 billion in outflows. Unsurprisingly, BlackRock’s IBIT registered the most inflows with $210 million, followed by ARK 21Shares ARKB with $162.85 million. Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB also registered healthy inflows, bringing in a combined $104.33 million. Despite over $1 billion in outflows last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs have registered over $4.21 billion in net inflows so far in October, surpassing September’s $3.53 billion.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

Bitcoin (BTC) reached an intraday high of $114,082 on Tuesday as market sentiment picked up. However, President Trump’s comments derailed investor optimism. As a result, the price fell 1.99% and settled at $108,362. BTC is marginally down during the ongoing session, trading around $108,120. 

Bitcoin’s decline comes as the notorious Bitcoin whale accused of price manipulation doubled down on their short position. The whale pocketed over $200 million after shorting Bitcoin during the market crash on October 10. The “Trump insider” whale and the “10B Hyperunit Whale” have made several bearish bets. The “Trump insider” whale’s $234 million short position on Hyperliquid is already sitting on $6.7 million in unrealized profits. One analyst called the whale’s actions “pure manipulation” and suggested the trader may intentionally dump their Bitcoin holdings to make prices drop towards the short position targets. 

Investors are also waiting for the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday. Analysts predict a 3.1% year-over-year increase for September. Markets are already expecting a 25 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve following the FOMC meeting next week. Rate cuts are typically beneficial for assets like BTC. 

BTC stopped short of “filling” the latest gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market. These gaps result from futures closing at one price point and opening at another, and are generally created over the weekend. The markets tend to “fill” these gaps by returning to the space between the open and closing levels. Trader Daan Crypto Trades stated in a post on X, 

“BTC opened with a small CME gap below this week. Price did come down to close some of it, but there’s still a bit left. So good to keep that in mind if the price were to trade close to it. Besides that, we did close the big gap at $110K last week. This was a gap that was left behind at the end of September before BTC rallied to new all-time highs.”

BTC and the broader crypto market crashed last Friday (October 10), after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and new export controls for software. The announcement was made in retaliation for China's imposing restrictions on rare earth mineral exports. As a result, BTC plunged to $102,000 on Binance before recovering and settling at $112,980. Selling pressure persisted on Saturday as the price fell almost 2% to $110,768. Despite the overwhelming selling pressure, markets recovered on Sunday as BTC rose nearly 4% to reclaim $115,000 and settle at $115,067. The price faced selling pressure and volatility on Monday, ultimately registering a marginal increase and settling at $115,274.

Source: TradingView

Selling pressure returned on Tuesday as BTC fell to an intraday low of $109,945. It recovered from this level to reclaim $113,000 and settle at $113,068, ultimately dropping 1.91%. Sellers retained control on Wednesday as the price fell 2% to $110,804. Bearish sentiment persisted on Thursday as BTC fell below $110,000 and settled at $108,198. The price plunged to $103,516 on Friday as selling pressure intensified. However, it recovered from this level to settle at $106,463, ultimately dropping 1.60%. BTC rose on Saturday, rising 0.70% to reclaim $107,000 and settle at $107,208. Buyers retained control on Sunday as the price rose over 1% to cross $108,000 and settle at $108,676. Bullish sentiment intensified on Monday as BTC’s recovery continued. As a result, the price rose nearly 2% to reclaim $110,000 and settle at $110,568.

BTC reached an intraday high of $114,082 on Tuesday. However, market sentiment soured and buyers lost momentum. As a result, the price fell 1.99% to $108,362. BTC is down 0.50% during the ongoing session, trading around $107,912.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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