Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Clears $115,000 But Where Does It Go Next?

Bitcoin (BTC) registered a modest recovery over Wednesday and Thursday, crossing the $115,000 level and settling at $115,540. However, it faces major overhead resistance above $116,000 but holds several key support levels below. 

The flagship cryptocurrency must hold $115,000 to ensure the recovery, but faces a key test between $116,000 and $120,000. 

Bitcoin ETFs Register $2 Billion In Inflows In September 

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a resurgence this month after a bruising August, which registered heavy redemptions as market sentiment wavered. According to data from SoSoValue, the 12 Bitcoin ETFs registered substantial inflows in six of the first eight trading sessions of the current month. The investment vehicles have registered over $1.7 billion over the past four sessions alone, indicating a resurgence of investor interest. The recovery is in sharp contrast with August, which registered $751 million in outflows. 

Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, highlighted that daily net inflows have become one of the strongest factors in determining Bitcoin price action. Dragosch stated, 

“Since early 2024 and the US ETF approvals, daily net flows have shown a significantly stronger correlation with subsequent returns, underscoring the extent to which institutionalized demand via ETPs now shapes price discovery.”

BTC crossed $115,000 thanks to a recent resurgence after weeks of weak price action. 

“Bitcoin ETPs have become far more than an investor's convenience. They are now a crucial determinant of market liquidity, performance, and the evolution of Bitcoin’s broader ecosystem.”

Smarter Web Eyes “Struggling” Competitors

Smarter Web Company, the UK’s largest corporate Bitcoin (BTC) holder, is exploring the acquisition of distressed competitors to acquire their Bitcoin holdings at a discount. The Smarter Web Company is the UK’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with over £200 million in crypto reserves. The announcement comes despite a 73% drop in share price since a mid-June peak. Andrew Webley, the founder of the company, stated, 

“There’s one that’s very attractive, there’s one that I’ve got my sights on at the moment.”

Smarter Web has pivoted dramatically from its web design business, embarking on a Bitcoin accumulation strategy called the “10-year plan.” It currently holds 2,470 BTC worth £200 million, crossing the 2,000 BTC milestone in July. The company claims its aggressive strategy has helped it gain a 49,198% year-to-date Bitcoin yield, putting it among the top 25 global Bitcoin holders. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

Bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed the $115,000 level after Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) buoyed market sentiment. Markets expect an imminent rate cut following the FOMC meeting, boosting BTC’s price. The flagship cryptocurrency rose over 2% on Wednesday and 1.37% on Thursday to cross $115,000 and settle at $115,540. However, it is marginally down during the ongoing session. 

While it has reclaimed the $115,000 level, BTC has failed to sustain its recovery thanks to weak spot demand and falling ETF inflows. According to Glassnode’s Week Onchain report, the main focus is shifting to the derivatives market. According to the market intelligence firm, futures traders are helping absorb the recent sell pressure. 

“Attention now shifts to derivatives markets, which often set the tone when spot flows weaken. Going forward, the evolution of derivatives positioning will be critical to navigating the market in this low spot-liquidity environment.”

Options open interest (OI) reached an all-time high of $54.6 billion, up 26% from the $43 billion on September 1. This suggests growing investor interest in the derivatives market, which could have a positive impact on price action. Options data also shows a bias towards calls over puts, indicating the market is leaning towards bullish and managing downside risk. Glassnode stated in its analysis,

“Both futures basis and options positioning reflect a more balanced structure than in past overheated phases, pointing to a market advancing on firmer footing.”

Ongoing concerns about labor market weakness have strengthened the chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Markets believe there is an 11% chance the rate cut will be more than the expected 0.25%. The Koebeissi letter noted in a post on X that markets are pricing in a larger rate cut, 

“Markets are now pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. While CPI inflation continues to rise, the labor market is simply too weak to ignore. Next week will be a big week.”

Prominent crypto market commentators believe a rate cut is all but imminent, with one popular trader stating, 

“PPI much lower than expected, CPI as expected. Conclusion: Inflation is not as bad as expected - bring on the rate cut later this month. News now behind us, time to resume the scheduled programme: higher.”

BTC registered a sharp drop on Friday (August 29), dropping nearly 4% to $108,378. The price recovered on Saturday, rising 0.41%, but was back in the red on Sunday, falling 0.53% to settle at 108,247. Price action was positive on Monday as BTC rose almost 1% to cross $109,000 and settle at $109,240. Bullish sentiment intensified on Tuesday as the price rallied, increasing 1.84% to cross $111,000 and settling at $111,247. BTC posted a marginal increase on Wednesday, rising 0.46% to $111,756. Despite the positive sentiment, the price lost momentum on Thursday, dropping to an intraday low of $109,321 before settling at $110,720.

Source: TradingView

BTC rallied to an intraday high of $113,390 on Friday but could not stay at this level. As a result, it fell to $110,670, ultimately registering a marginal decline. Price action was mixed over the weekend, with BTC falling 0.41% on Saturday and settling at $110,212. It recovered on Sunday, rising nearly 1% to reclaim $111,000 and settle at $111,129. Buyers retained control on Monday as BTC reached an intraday high of $112,940. However, it could not remain at this level and fell to $112,072, ultimately rising 0.85%. BTC lost momentum on Tuesday, dropping 0.47% to $111,549. Bullish sentiment returned on Wednesday as BTC rallied, rising over 2% to cross $113,000 and settle at $113,983. Buyers retained control on Thursday as the price rose 1.37% to cross $115,000 and settle at $115,540. BTC is marginally down during the ongoing session, trading around $115,313.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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