Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Struggling To Break Above 200-Day SMA

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to break above the 200-day SMA and the $84,000-$85,000 resistance zone. The flagship cryptocurrency has been marginally down over the past 24 hours, trading at around $82,650. 

Analysts are split over BTC’s next price move. However, a positive sign is that bulls have not ceded much ground and kept the price above $80,000 despite growing selling pressure. 

Strategy Acquires More Bitcoin (BTC) 

Strategy (MSTR) added to its Bitcoin holdings, selling a small portion of its preferred stock (STRK) to fund the latest acquisition. Strategy purchased 130 BTC for around $10.7 million, a relatively modest addition compared to previous buying sprees. The firm now holds 499,226 BTC, acquired for $33 billion at an average cost of $66,360 BTC. Strategy sold 123,000 shares of STRK for $10.7 million. The company had recently announced a $21 billion at-the-market offering of the preferred stock. 

Bitcoin Does Not Meet Foreign Reserve Standards: Bank of Korea 

The Bank of Korea has ruled out adding Bitcoin (BTC) to its foreign exchange reserves. The decision was conveyed in response to a written inquiry from Representative Cha Gyu-geun of the National Assembly’s Planning and Finance Committee. The bank highlighted the cryptocurrency’s high volatility as a concern, adding that “transaction costs to cash out Bitcoins could rise drastically” if the crypto market experiences volatility. Korean officials also argued that Bitcoin does not meet the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) criteria for foreign exchange reserves. The IMF requires reserve assets to maintain liquidity, market stability, and a credit rating of investment grade or higher. 

Discussions about a strategic crypto reserve have gained traction globally after the US government’s decision to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Countries like Brazil and the Czech Republic are also exploring the idea. However, the Bank of Korea argued a “cautious approach” is necessary, pointing out that other central banks, like the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and Japan’s financial authorities maintain a similar stance. 

Is Bitcoin Bracing For A Recovery?

A recent analysis by a CryptoQuant analyst showed Bitcoin’s open interest had hit a staggering $33 billion, indicating extreme leverage in the market. However, the market has seen a significant reset, with over $10 billion in open interest positions wiped out in two months, leading to optimism a price recovery is imminent. Political instability due to President Donald Trump’s actions led to a wave of liquidations, with almost $10 billion wiped out between February 20 and March 4. The decline drove Bitcoin’s 90-day futures open interest down to -14%, signaling a market reset. According to analysts, removing excessive speculation provides a more stable basis for future growth. 

Despite BTC’s decline, the asset’s long-term outlook remains positive. According to economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin experiences significant seasonal gains in April and October. Peterson’s analysis reveals BTC could hit a new all-time high before June, with a median target of $126,000. 

“Bitcoin is trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range. Nearly all of Bitcoin's annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October. It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June.”

However, not all analysts are bullish. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse stated BTC’s bull cycle could be in jeopardy if the price drops below the levels reached in 2024, suggesting the bull market could be over if BTC closes in the $60,000s. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to break above the 200-day SMA and the resistance in the $84,000-$85,000 range. While the price is struggling to move upwards, bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears, with sellers running out of steam at lower levels. Bitget Research analyst Ryan Lee said the flagship cryptocurrency needs a weekly close above $81,000 to indicate resilience. Additionally, selling pressure could accelerate if BTC drops below $96,000. Markus Thielen, head crypto researcher at 10x Research also adopted a cautious note, stating that Bitcoin’s chart structure suggested market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation. Thielen added that he doubted a strong price recovery at this juncture. However, Timothy Pearson, economist at the Bitcoin Network, had a more positive outlook, stating that a large portion of BTC’s annual gains are witnessed in April and October. 

BTC turned bearish last Thursday (March 6) after failing to cross the 20-day SMA. As a result, the price dropped almost 1%, slipping below $90,000 and settling at $89,957. Bearish sentiment intensified on Friday as BTC dropped 3.53% and settled at $86,781. Price action remained bearish over the weekend as BTC registered a marginal drop on Saturday. Selling pressure intensified on Sunday as the price fell over 6%, slipping below the 200-day SMA and $80,000 on its way to a low of $79,987 before making a marginal recovery and settling at $80,736. BTC attempted a recovery on Monday, surging to an intraday high of $84,075. However, it could not stay at this level and dropped nearly 3%, slipping below $80,000 and settling at $78,620.

Source: TradingView

BTC fell to an intraday low of $76,642 on Tuesday as selling pressure intensified. It rebounded from this level to register an increase of 5.50% to reclaim $80,000 and settle at $82,943. Buyers retained control on Wednesday despite selling pressure, as the price rose almost 1% and settled at $83,709. However, buyers lost momentum on Thursday, and BTC dropped over 3% to $81,136. Bullish sentiment returned on Friday as markets rebounded. As a result, BTC rose 3.53%, moving past the 200-day SMA and reaching an intraday high of $85,363 before settling at $84,002. Buyers retained control on Saturday as the price registered a marginal increase. However, it was back in the red on Sunday, dropping over 2%, slipping below the 200-day SMA, and settling at $82,610. The current session sees BTC up over 1% and trading at $84,577 as buyers look to move past the 200-day SMA and $85,000. The MACD indicates an uptick in bullish sentiment, suggesting BTC could see a price increase.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.