Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Remains In A State Of Uncertainty

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to reclaim $84,000 as price action remains muted despite favorable CPI numbers. The flagship cryptocurrency briefly bounced above $84,000 but lost momentum and dropped towards $81,000. The flagship current is up over 2%, trading just below the $83,000 level. 

The crypto market remains fragile, with investor sentiment bogged down by macroeconomic conditions, tariffs, a potential trade war with China, and policy uncertainty. The crypto market cap registered a marginal increase, rising to $2.71 trillion. 

Democrat Lawmaker Demands Treasury Prevents Bitcoin Reserve 

A Democrat lawmaker has urged the US Treasury to stop all attempts to create a strategic crypto reserve, citing a conflict of interest with the US President and stating that a crypto stockpile would not benefit Americans. House Representative Gerald E. Connery slammed plans of a cryptocurrency stockpile in a March 13 letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, arguing it provided no benefit to the American people and would instead enrich the President and his donors. Connolly did not differentiate between the strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the Digital Asset Stockpile and added that Trump’s policies would constitute of “unsound fiscal policy” because it chose specific cryptocurrencies over others. 

“No strategic need has arisen that would necessitate investment in the volatile and speculative cryptocurrency market. [It] would constitute nothing more than a highly speculative taxpayer-backed hedge to provide bitcoin speculators the assurance that when the crash comes, the State will deploy this fund to rescue it.”

Connolly also argued that Trump did not consult with Congress for the Bitcoin reserve, let alone obtain Congressional authorization to create it. He also alleged conflicts of interest between Trump’s Presidential duties and the Trump Organization’s ownership of World Liberty Financial and the TRUMP meme coin. Connolly also asked Bessent to provide documents and communications related to the Bitcoin reserve and a list of steps taken by the Trump administration to prevent a conflict of interest. 

“Has the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets on which you serve, tasked with developing a federal regulatory framework to govern the cryptocurrency reserve reviewed financial disclosures by the Administration officials, including but not limited to Elon Musk.”

What Does Bitcoin Need To Confirm Market Bottom? 

Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland has stated that according to the weekly chart, Bitcoin (BTC) will likely test the support between $69,000 and $74,000 in the next few months. The analyst noted that BTC’s weekly resistance sits at $90,500, adding that if the asset closed above $89,000, it may indicate the market bottom is in. 

“If we do get a weekly close above this area ($89,000 to $91,000), I think the low is in for Bitcoin, and we are not going down to this area.”

Panic Selling Costs New Investors $100M 

According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin speculators have registered losses of over $100M in six weeks thanks to panic selling. Speculators holding the asset between one and three months bore the brunt of the drawdown, losing around $100 million. 

“This represents a significant reduction in the value of Bitcoin held by this cohort, who are now underwater as many bought at higher prices and are exiting with losses.”

Onchained also referenced the market cap and realized cap of the entities in question, corresponding to the current value of the BTC owned versus the price at which they last moved on-chain. 

“The market capitalization (MC) of their holdings is now lower than the realized capitalization (RC), signaling that these holders are locking in realized losses. This behavior is contributing to increased selling pressure and could lead to further downward price action in the short term.”

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

BTC has had a bumpy year, rising to an all-time high in January and hitting multi-month lows in March. The flagship cryptocurrency is down almost 25% from its all-time high and fell to a four-month low on March 11. BTC is facing several challenges that have kept price action muted. Institutional investors have adopted a risk aversion approach as recession fears loom, and Trump’s tariff policies have also shrouded the market in a cloak of uncertainty. Investors were also disappointed by the lack of fresh BTC purchases for the strategic reserve, impacting investor sentiment. BTC registered a slight bounce after inflation data offered some relief and optimism. However, the optimism did not last, with the price dropping back to $82,000 as the day progressed. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are under significant pressure as outflows gather pace. While they registered some days of net positive inflows, they were smaller in volume compared to heavy outflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs registered their largest single-day outflow ever, with institutional investors pulling out $1 billion, indicating a clear risk-off sentiment. However, despite the outflows, BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant ETF with 568,000 BTC, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC (197,500 BTC) and Grayscale’s GBTC (196,000 BTC). 

A technical analysis by CryptoCon suggests that BTC’s sharp pullback from its all-time high could mean it has reached a local bottom or run the risk of a deeper correction. The analyst stated the flagship cryptocurrency had reached historically low RSI Bollinger Band levels. 

“Bitcoin has now made a full return to critically low RSI Bollinger Band % levels, and it doesn't like to stay there for long. This comes after the completion of phase 4, the ATH break like January 2013, December 2016, and November 2020. What we're seeing now is looking just like March 2017! Likely not a coincidence that it's the same month. Phase 5 (the cycle top) was still 9 months away then, now has all the same characteristics of every local low we've seen this cycle.”

BTC made a strong recovery after plunging to an intraday low of $81,500 on Tuesday, rising 1.27% to $87,316. Buyers retained control on Wednesday as BTC rose nearly 4% to reclaim $90,000 and settle at $90,639. However, selling pressure returned on Thursday, and BTC registered a marginal drop, slipping below $90,000 and settling at $89,597. Bearish sentiment intensified on Friday, and BTC fell 3.53% to settle at $86,781. Price action remained bearish over the weekend, dropping 0.59% on Saturday. BTC plunged below the 200-day SMA and $80,000 on Sunday, falling to an intraday low of $79,987 before recovering to settle at $80,736, a drop of over 6%.

Source: TradingView

Buyers attempted a recovery on Monday as BTC reached an intraday high of $84,075. However, it could not stay at this level and dropped nearly 3%, slipping below $80,000 and settling at $78,620. Sellers drove the price to an intraday low of $76,635 as selling pressure intensified. BTC recovered from this level to register an increase of 5.50%, reclaim $80,000 and settle at $82,945. Buyers retained control on Wednesday as the price rose to $83,709. However, it lost momentum after reaching this level and dropped over 3% on Thursday to settle at $81,136. The current session sees BTC up nearly 3% and trading around $83,300 as it looks to move past the 200-day SMA. Buyers will look to retain control and push BTC above the 200-day SMA and $85,000. On the other hand, sellers will look to push BTC below $80,000. A break below this level could see the price drop to $75,000.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.