Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Bulls Must Wait For New ATH As Rally Stalls

Bitcoin’s (BTC) push toward a new all-time high stalled after reaching $110,253. The decline comes despite encouraging US macroeconomic data. However, analysts are optimistic about a recovery and a rally to $115,000. 

BTC is down nearly 2% during the ongoing session, trading around $106,943, with sellers in control. 

Centralized Treasuries Hold A Third Of The Bitcoin Supply 

A recent research report by Gemini and Glassnode has revealed that centralized Bitcoin treasuries hold around 31% of the total Bitcoin supply. Centralized treasuries, including those of governments, exchange-traded funds, and public companies, control 30.9% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin, signaling a shift towards institutional-grade infrastructure. The total Bitcoin with institutional and custodial entities stands at 6.1 million BTC, worth $668 billion at current prices. This represents a staggering 924% increase in the Bitcoin supply held by these entities over the past decade. According to Glassnode and Gemini, the jump in BTC holdings by institutional funds, governments, and treasuries shows that they view the asset as a strategic store of value. 

“During the same period, the spot price of Bitcoin has climbed from under $1,000 to over $100,000, reinforcing the thesis that institutions increasingly view Bitcoin as a strategic asset.”

Centralized exchanges hold around half of that figure and may be holding them for retail investors and individual customers. The report also stated that the top three entities across all institutional categories control between 65% and 90% of the total holdings. 

“In contrast, private company holdings appear more distributed, reflecting a broader base of engagement.”

Bitwise CEO Believes Selling Pressure Will Vanish Once BTC Taps $130,000

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley believes Bitcoin sell pressure will evaporate once the asset’s price crosses $130,000. Horsley stated in a post on X, 

“I think once Bitcoin breaks through $130-150k, no one is going to sell their Bitcoin. Right now at $100k, it seems individuals who hold a lot of Bitcoin that was bought a long time ago at very low prices, are selling some. That said, once Bitcoin breaks new levels, this will peter off. And from there on, when people need liquidity, they are going to borrow from an ever-growing set of lenders. All of which will further propel the price. There's simply not going to be enough Bitcoin.”

Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz believes Bitcoin could reach the 

$130,000-$150,000 price range this year thanks to growing demand and institutional adoption. According to Horsley, the current selling pressure is from early buyers of Bitcoin, who acquired the flagship cryptocurrency at low prices and have decided to sell some of their assets. 

“Right now at $100k, it seems individuals who hold a lot of Bitcoin that was bought a long time ago at very low prices are selling some. Once Bitcoin breaks new levels, this will peter off.”

Horsley believes there will not be enough Bitcoin in the market, and holders must find alternative avenues of accessing liquidity. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

Bitcoin (BTC) started the week on a bullish note, surging past $110,000 on Monday. Sellers attempted to take control on Tuesday as the price fell to a low of $108,335 but were unsuccessful as BTC rebounded to reclaim $110,000 and settle at $110,253. However, selling pressure overwhelmed buyers on Wednesday as BTC fell 1.42% to $108,687. The flagship cryptocurrency continues to trade in the red during the ongoing session, trading at around $107,400. 

BTC’s brief rally past $110,000 came as US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers came in cooler-than-expected. The CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year against an expected 2.5%, while Core CPI also beat estimates, rising 2.8% against a forecasted 2.9%. Analysts expect risk assets like BTC to rally if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates. However, the chances of a rate cut next week remain low as headline CPI is rising for the first time since January. Overall market sentiment around BTC remains bullish, and softer-than-expected CPI data could see BTC rebound and surge to new highs above $115,000. US Producer Price Index (PPI) data could be a BTC and crypto rally. PPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, while core PPI is expected to rise 0.3%. 

Lower-than-expected numbers could reinforce dovish expectations over the second half of the year. Bitfinex analysts believe BTC could reach $111,000 despite heightened volatility and a substantial decline to below $108,000 this week. Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, believes soft inflation numbers could increase the likelihood of a rate cut, giving assets like BTC a boost. The Bitfinex analyst believes this could drive the price to $111,000 even though its upside depends on the performance of the S&P 500.

“BTC’s tight correlation with the S&P 500 (30D r ~0.63) reveals its current role as a liquidity barometer rather than a volatility hedge. This correlation makes BTC highly sensitive to SPX range-bound conditions, and until the index breaks out, BTC’s upside remains constrained.”

BTC started the previous week with a sharp drop to $103,768. It recovered from this level to register a marginal increase and settle at $105,902. The price registered a marginal decline on Tuesday and slipped below $105,000 on Wednesday after dropping almost 1% to $104,752. Bearish sentiment intensified on Thursday as BTC fell 3%, dropping to a low of $100,424 before settling at $101,614. Despite overwhelming selling pressure, the price recovered on Friday, rising nearly 3% to $104,378.

Source: TradingView

BTC continued to push higher over the weekend, rising 1.15% on Saturday and registering a marginal increase on Sunday to reclaim $105,000 and settle at $105,784. Bullish sentiment intensified on Monday as BTC rallied over 4%, surging past the 20-day SMA and $110,000 and settling at $110,251. The price fell to an intraday low of $108,335 on Tuesday but recovered to register a marginal increase and settle at $110,253. Selling pressure returned on Wednesday as BTC fell 1.42%. Slipping below $110,000 and settling at $108,687. The current session sees BTC down nearly 2%, trading around $107,054 as it struggles to stay above $107,000. A bearish MACD suggests sellers have the upper hand.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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