Why Is Bitcoin Falling Today? BTC Price Analysis and Key Levels

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline today, slipping below several key technical levels as the U.S. rising Treasury yields and risk-off sentiment weighed on global markets. The world’s largest cryptocurrency now faces a crucial support test amid increasing volatility and investor caution.

Alongside these market shifts, Outset PR, a data-driven crypto communications agency founded by Mike Ermolaev, continues to track how sentiment and macro cycles shape narrative visibility across the industry. Its proprietary analytical tools, such as the Syndication Map, allow campaigns to mirror the rhythm of market trends, ensuring brands stay visible even during bearish turns like Bitcoin’s current pullback.

Technical Breakdown: BTC Loses Key Support

Bitcoin’s technical outlook turned decisively bearish after the asset fell below both its 7-day simple moving average (SMA) at $106,227 and its 30-day SMA at $110,565. Such dual breaks are widely seen by traders as short-term sell signals, confirming weakening momentum after several weeks of sideways trading.

Source: coinmarketcap 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) dropped to 34.4, approaching oversold territory, while the MACD histogram turned negative at –833, signaling sustained bearish pressure.

The $104,356 Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level now serves as critical support. A confirmed close below this threshold could trigger automated sell orders and stop-loss cascades, potentially accelerating the move toward $101,000 or lower.

Outset PR: Data-Driven Communication in Volatile Markets

Periods like these highlight how data and timing determine visibility — a principle that Outset PR has built its strategy around.

Traditionally, PR campaigns relied on mass distribution with uncertain impact. Outset PR changed that by developing the Syndication Map, a proprietary analytics tool that identifies which media outlets generate the highest syndication lift and audience engagement.

“If a company needs a top list article, we filter for media that publish that format, cross-check costs and placement conditions, and know within minutes where to pitch,” explains Maximilian Fondé, Senior Media Analyst at Outset PR.

This precision allows the agency to craft campaigns that reduce wasted spending and target high-impact coverage. Its Media Relations team, led by Anastasia Anisimova, complements analytics with human trust — a rare combination in a space dominated by automation and mass outreach.

“Sincerity and friendliness are our core principles,” Anisimova notes. “It’s how we’ve built long-term relationships with tier-1 media outlets.”

Outset PR’s approach optimizes reach through syndication effects, where stories are republished across platforms like CoinMarketCap and Binance Square, often expanding reach tenfold.

For instance, a campaign for StealthEX led to 92 republications, achieving a total outreach exceeding 3 billion. This outcome reflects the same principle driving strong trades — strategic timing and data-based execution.

Macro Factors Weigh on Risk Assets

The selloff in Bitcoin aligns closely with weakness across global markets. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have reduced risk appetite, prompting outflows from both equities and digital assets. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5%, and Bitcoin’s 24-hour correlation with the S&P 500 climbed to above zero, reinforcing its sensitivity to macroeconomic trends.

Source: theblock.co 

This rotation away from crypto toward yield-bearing instruments marks a familiar pattern seen during tightening cycles: as bond yields climb, traders reprice risk assets lower to account for opportunity costs.

Key BTC Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $106,200 (7-day SMA)

• Major Resistance: $110,565 (30-day SMA)

• Critical Support: $104,356 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement)

• Next Support: $101,000 psychological level

If Bitcoin holds above $104,000, traders could see stabilization followed by a relief rally toward $108,000–$110,000. However, a daily close below $104,000 risks deeper retracement and renewed liquidation pressure.

Outlook: Short-Term Fragility, Long-Term Opportunity

Bitcoin’s current downturn highlights the interplay of technical breakdowns, macro volatility, and miner supply dynamics. While these forces may dominate the short-term narrative, the medium-term picture remains constructive as institutional inflows continue and ETF participation broadens.

Much like Bitcoin’s cycles, Outset PR’s model thrives on reading market momentum — aligning its campaigns with prevailing sentiment to achieve measurable visibility, even in bearish conditions.

If macro conditions stabilize and Bitcoin maintains its long-term structure above $100K, the correction may ultimately serve as a healthy reset within the ongoing cycle. Until then, traders should brace for heightened volatility and range-bound action, with $104,000 as the key level separating a bounce from a deeper slide.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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