Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Rebounds After Hitting $104,000, Is The Worst Over?

Bitcoin (BTC) slumped to a low of $103,736 on Friday as the price sank to levels not seen since August. Safe haven bets clearly favored gold as the asset’s market cap surged to a record $30 trillion, up 18% over the past month. 

Some analysts believe BTC’s bull run could be over, warning that it risks a 50% correction. 

Bitcoin ETFs Shed Over $1 Billion

Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed over $1.2 billion this week as Bitcoin plunged to multi-month lows. The eleven US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered an aggregate outflow of $366 million on Friday, rounding off a bearish week for the asset and its associated investment products. BlackRock’s IBIT registered the largest outflows with $268.6 million, followed by Fidelity, which lost $67.2 million. Grayscale’s GBTC registered outflows of $25 million, while Valkyrie’s ETF registered minor outflows. Friday’s outflows brought the total outflows for the week to $1.22 billion. The outflows came as Bitcoin shed over $10,000 to slip below $104,000 on Friday before rebounding to current levels. 

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, stated, 

“We see the current slump as largely the aftershock of last weekend's historic liquidation event, compounded by broader market uncertainty and some disappointment around October's underwhelming performance. That said, the fundamental outlook remains intact — the crypto market structure looks constructive, and we expect pullbacks to be met with strong support.”

Liquidations registered another spike over the past 24 hours, with data from CoinGlass revealing $1.23 billion was liquidated from the market. 

Bitcoin Bull Run On Its Last Legs 

Analyst CryptoBird believes Bitcoin only has a few days of price expansion left if it follows historical patterns from previous bull runs. The analyst stated in a post on X, 

“Bull run ends in 10 days. Cycle Peak Countdown says BTC is 99.3% done (1,058 days in) as we shake out weak hands in classic pre-peak pattern. Are we in a bear market or is there more upside?”

The analyst stated that the Cycle Peak Countdown shows that Bitcoin is 99% done with its upside. 

“1,058 days since cycle low = 99.3% complete, with only 0.7% remains of this historic bull cycle. Our October 24 target is exactly 10 days away.”

According to CryptoBird, the ongoing pullback is right on schedule, adding that it is “classic pre-peak behavior.”

Additionally, BTC’s drop below key support levels has led to structural weaknesses, potentially leading to a deeper correction. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades stated in a post on X, 

“BTC is losing its Daily 200MA & EMA for the first time since April. With that, also the local support level at ~$107K is lost. Now testing the .786 fibonacci retracement level from this move up, and also when measuring from the wick on other exchanges. The Coinbase pair didn't go as low. Lose this zone and the June lows are on the board. This was the main region I've been waiting for so let's see what we get. Touching grass if bulls can't manage to hold this level this week.”

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

Bitcoin (BTC) plunged to an intraday low of $103,516 on Friday, dropping to a multi-month low as selling pressure intensified. The flagship cryptocurrency has rebounded during the ongoing session, trading around $106,774. 

While prices are stressed, Strike CEO Jack Mallers believes Bitcoin could benefit from any liquidity crisis that follows if regional banks continue to face renewed stress. Mallers sees the banking stress as validation that BTC is pricing in an impending liquidity crisis, and that the Federal Reserve’s response will ultimately drive prices higher. Mallers stated, 

“Bitcoin is accurately smelling trouble right now. The US is going to have to inject some of that sweet, sweet liquidity soon and print a ton of money, or else its fiat empire goes kaboom. Bitcoin is the most sensitive to liquidity. It moves first. It’s a truth machine. Yields are puking, spreads are blowing out, and banks are stressed. Bitcoin is working. It smells of trouble. When they’re forced to print, it’ll move first again, and outperform everything.”

The banking crisis is a repeat of the 2023 regional banking crisis. Analysts believe that the crisis was never truly resolved, but only papered over with bailouts and acquisitions.

Some traders and analysts warned of a potential drop below the key $100,000 level, with prices potentially falling to $98,000 if this support was breached. Meanwhile, others saw an attempt to fill a daily candle wick from last week that took prices down to $102,000 on Binance. BTC failed to stay above key levels in its latest downturn, with analysts warning there is almost no support until the $101,000 level. Crypto investor Ted Pillows stated, 

“BTC has lost the $108,000 support level. Now there’s little to no support until $101,000-$102,000. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $110,000 level from here, we could see a bounce back. Otherwise, expect more pain before relief.”

BTC and the crypto market crashed on Friday after President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and new export controls for software. The announcement was made in retaliation for China's imposition of restrictions on rare earth mineral exports. As a result, BTC plunged to $102,000 on Binance before recovering and settling at $112,980. Selling pressure persisted on Saturday as the price fell almost 2% to $110,768. Despite the overwhelming selling pressure, markets recovered on Sunday. As a result, BTC rose nearly 4% to reclaim $115,000 and settle at $115,067.

Source: TradingView

The price faced selling pressure and volatility on Monday, ultimately registering a marginal increase and settling at $115,274. Selling pressure returned on Tuesday as BTC fell to an intraday low of $109,945. It recovered from this level to reclaim $113,000 and settle at $113,068, ultimately dropping 1.91%. Sellers retained control on Wednesday as the price fell 2% to $110,804. Bearish sentiment persisted on Thursday as BTC fell below $110,000 and settled at $108,198. The price plunged to a low of $103,516 on Friday as selling pressure intensified. However, it recovered from this level to settle at $106,463, ultimately dropping 1.60%. BTC is marginally up during the ongoing session, trading around $106,876.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

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