Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Holds Above $122,000 Despite Selling Pressure
Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed $122,000 after falling to an intraday low of $121,175 during the ongoing session. The flagship cryptocurrency is down nearly 1%, trading around $122,229.
BTC appears to have lost momentum as its record-breaking rally cools. Prices are testing key levels that could dictate their next move. Markets started October in bullish fashion, with BTC surging to a new all-time high of $126,296.
Peter Brandt Makes Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction
Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin is set for an unprecedented price discovery phase if it doesn’t peak in the next few days. Brandt highlighted BTC’s historical cycle pattern, which played out during previous cycles, stating,
“It is reasonable to expect a bull market high any day now. These cycles from low-to-halving-to-high have not always been the same length, but the post-halving distance of each has always been equal to the pre-halving distance. Sooner or later, cycles change. But betting against a cycle that has a perfect three-for-three record should not be done with reckless abandon.”
However, Brandt added that he is divided about the outcome, stating,
“I will remain bullish, hopeful for counter-cyclicality. In this case, a move well beyond $150,000 would be my expectation, perhaps as high as $185,000.”
Four-Year Cycle Debate Rages On
Meanwhile, the debate over whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is still relevant continues as institutional interest, ETFs, and corporate treasuries make their mark. Analyst Rekt Capital had said back in July that if Bitcoin follows its 2020 pattern, the rally would likely peak in October.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left.”
Some analysts and market experts believe that even if Bitcoin doesn’t follow the four-year cycle, it will exhibit a similar pattern. Gemini’s head of the APAC region, Saad Ahmed, stated during Token2049,
“It ultimately stems from people getting excited and overextending themselves, and then you kind of see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium.”
Arthur Hayes Believes Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes the Bitcoin four-year cycle is dead. However, his reasons are not what many people expect. Hayes stated in a blog post,
“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run.”
Hayes stated that Bitcoin price cycles are driven by the supply of the USD and the Chinese yuan, not four-year patterns linked to the halving event. The BitMEX founder also believes the current cycle is different for several reasons. These include the US Treasury draining $2.5 trillion from the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo program into the market by issuing more treasury bills. There are also ongoing discussions about deregulating banks and increasing lending. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts despite inflation being at higher levels.
However, several market experts still believe in the four-year cycle. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode believes that Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors past patterns. Meanwhile, Ahmed added,
“I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle.”
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Selling pressure has intensified during the ongoing session, with BTC down nearly 2%. The flagship cryptocurrency has struggled to regain momentum after Monday’s record high, registering a notable decline on Tuesday before recovering on Wednesday to reclaim $123,000. Bitcoin’s current price action is part of a broader market slowdown as Monday’s rally loses steam. BTC’s rally was fueled by spot buying and record ETF inflows. However, with buyers losing momentum, analysts fear a drop to $120,000 could be possible.
However, technical indicators point to further strength after Bitcoin formed a double-bottom pattern on its daily chart. The pattern is marked by two lows at roughly the same price between a sharp rally, and is generally viewed as a bullish signal. An analysis from CryptoQuant supported this outlook, pointing out that profit-taking remained low despite BTC rising to record levels. However, if BTC remains above $120,000, it could retest $120,000, potentially pushing towards $130,000.
According to a post on X, Bitcoin trader Tony Severino stated that Bitcoin’s next move depends on the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator. Bollinger Bands are a classic volatility gauge that act as a leading indicator for price action. Severino pointed out that the bands hit record tightness on the weekly timeframe. Market analysts have been waiting for a price breakout through the upper or lower band. However, Severino believes such a move will not come immediately.
“For now, BTCUSD has failed to break out above the upper band with strength. According to past local consolidation ranges, it could take as long as 100+ days to get a valid breakout (or breakdown, if BTC dumps instead).”
Rekt Capital believes BTC’s price cycles are getting longer, stating,
“It’s unlikely Bitcoin has already peaked in its Bull Market because that would effectively mean that this cycle was one of the shortest of all time. Price Discovery Correction 2 is over. In the end, it was indeed shallower, but it took roughly the same amount of time to resolve as in previous cycles (2017, 2021). Now, Bitcoin is on the cusp of entering Price Discovery Uptrend 3.”
BTC started the previous weekend with a marginal drop on Saturday before rising by over 2% on
Sunday and settling at $112,197. Buyers retained control on Monday as the price rose almost 2% to cross $114,000 and settle at $114,365. Despite the positive sentiment, BTC fell to a low of $112,695 on Tuesday. However, it recovered from this level to settle at $114,067, ultimately registering a marginal decline. Bullish sentiment returned on Wednesday as BTC rallied, rising over 4% to cross $118,000 and settle at $118,659. Buyers retained control on Thursday as the price rose 1.65% to reclaim $120,000 and settle at $120,621. Bullish sentiment persisted on Friday despite volatility and selling pressure. As a result, BTC reached an intraday high of $123,996 before settling at $122,318.
Source: TradingView
Buyers retained control on Saturday as BTC registered a marginal increase and settled at $122,458. Bullish sentiment intensified on Saturday as BTC rallied, surging past $125,000 to a new all-time high of $125,559. However, it could not stay at this level and ultimately settled at $123,520. BTC surged to a new all-time high on Monday, crossing $126,000 to reach $126,296 before settling at $124,720. Despite strong bullish momentum, BTC retreated on Tuesday, falling nearly 3% and settling at $121,393. The price recovered on Wednesday, rising almost 2% to reclaim $123,000 and settle at $123,343. Selling pressure has intensified during the ongoing session, with the price down nearly 2%.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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