Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Holds Above $118,000 But $120,000 A Bridge Too Far For Now
Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained its position above $118,000 despite facing selling pressure over the weekend and dropping to a low of $116,144 earlier this week. The flagship cryptocurrency rallied to reclaim $118,000 and reach $119,980 on Tuesday.
However, it could not cross $120,000 and retreated during the ongoing session. BTC is down 1.48% during the ongoing session, trading around $118,201.
Bitcoin ETFs Snap 12-Day Inflow Streak
Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke their 12-day inflow streak amid profit-taking, registering a net outflow of $131.5 million on Monday. The 12-day inflow streak had seen investors pour $6.6 billion into the ETFs. ARK Invest saw the largest outflow, shedding $77.6 million, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC, which registered $36.7 million worth of inflows. Meanwhile, Fidelity’s FBTC registered outflows of around $12.75 million. Bitwise’s BITB and VanEck’s HODL also registered nominal outflows of $1.91 million and $2.48 million. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s IBIT did not register any inflows or outflows.
The cumulative net inflows stand at a healthy $54.62 billion, while total net assets across all spot Bitcoin ETFs stand at $151 billion, 6.52% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. The outflows came as investors and institutions locked in their profits to manage risk. Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, stated,
“The recent ETF outflows reflect profit-taking near the highs and measured institutional rebalancing to lock in gains.”
Strategy Owns 3% of Bitcoin (BTC) Supply
Michael Saylor’s Strategy owns 3% of the Bitcoin (BTC) supply after completing its latest purchase of the asset earlier this week. The firm announced its latest purchase earlier this week, acquiring 6,220 BTC for $739 million, taking its total Bitcoin holdings to 607,770 BTC, worth $72 billion at current prices. Strategy has used a combination of common and preferred shares, along with debt, to fund its Bitcoin purchases. The company began accumulating the asset in late 2020 as a hedge against inflation.
In a separate announcement, Strategy stated that it planned to offer 5 million variable-rate Series A perpetual Stretch preferred shares to finance future Bitcoin purchases.
Bitcoin (BTC) Unlikely To Hit $200,000 In 2025
Glassnode lead analyst James Check believes Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $200,000 this year as buying volume is not increasing enough to push prices higher. The observation comes amid several industry executives predicting a rally to $200,000. Check stated in an interview,
“How on earth can we be going up when there is no volume? $200,000 in six months is a big move — that’s a big move.”
Check added that a rally would double Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of around $2.38 trillion. However, he said he does not see such a move materializing until volumes increase.
“Could it happen? Absolutely. Is it likely to happen? Very improbable. Until I see that volume kick in, until I feel a bit more confident, I am certainly not going to put on any levered positions. I’m probably not going to go out on the risk curve until I see that the market is stabilized.”
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim $120,000 on Tuesday despite building on Monday’s positive start. The flagship cryptocurrency rallied to an intraday high of $119,603 on Monday before losing momentum and settling at $117,387. Bullish sentiment intensified on Tuesday as BTC rose over 2%, crossing $119,000. However, it fell short of the $120,000 mark, settling at $119,980 before declining during the ongoing session. While BTC continues consolidating below $120,000, market analysts believe the bull cycle has some way to run.
According to analytics firm Bitcoin Vector, although momentum has slowed, on-chain metrics indicate that the bullish structure remains intact. The firm stated in a post on X,
“Momentum has cooled, but structure and fundamentals remain solid. This isn’t a top. It’s a coiled setup with support beneath it.”
Bitcoin Vector explained that with the BTC price compressed, fundamentals have paused and are not weakening. Buyers could simply be waiting for confirmation of the breakout. Meanwhile, Swissblock analyzed Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost basis, stating that STHs were active and not exhausted. The STH cost basis is the average purchase price of investors who have held BTC for less than 155 days. According to Swissblocks, the price reached the “heated” band of this metric on July 14, but did not push into the overheated zone. Swissblock added,
“Profit-taking is present, but the STH risk zone at $138K hasn’t been reached. This suggests there's still room for expansion before we see any panic selling or euphoria.”
BTC ended the previous weekend in positive territory, rising nearly 2% to $118,626. It soared past $120,000 on Monday, surging to a new all-time high of $123,091 before declining and settling at $119,716, ultimately registering a 0.92% increase. BTC lost momentum on Tuesday as traders began locking in their gains. As a result, it fell almost 2%, dropping to a low of $115,701 before settling at $117,682. The price recovered on Wednesday, rising 0.82% to reclaim $118,000 and settle at $118,641. BTC encountered volatility on Thursday as buyers and sellers struggled to establish control. Buyers ultimately gained the upper hand as the price rose 0.39% to cross $119,000 and settle at $119,101.
Source: TradingView
Selling pressure returned on Friday as BTC fell 1.03% to $117,877. The price remained bearish over the weekend, registering a marginal decline on Saturday and dropping 0.48% on Sunday to settle at $117,240. BTC reached an intraday high of $119,603 on Monday, making a positive start to the week. However, it lost momentum after reaching this level and settled at $117,397, ultimately registering a marginal increase. Bullish sentiment intensified on Tuesday as BTC rallied, rising over 2% to settle at $119,980. The current session sees BTC down almost 2%, trading around $117,940.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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