A futures bet is the least liquid thing on a sportsbook. You commit money in September and find out in February, with no realistic way to change your mind in between.
That illiquid stake is the defining feature, and it is worth understanding before the appeal of a long price takes over.
That Window Has Already Closed
Worth saying plainly up front, since the honest version is more useful than the alternative.
The 2026 regular season began on 9 September, which means pre-Week One prices are gone. Every futures market has already absorbed a round of results and repriced accordingly.
What follows is therefore two things at once: a record of what that window offered, so you know what to look for next August, and a guide to the in-season futures market that replaced it. Both are live questions, since futures trade all the way to February.
Four Futures Markets, Ranked by Tractability
They are not equally difficult, and the order below runs from hardest to most approachable.
Outright Winner
The outright winner market is the longest-dated on the board and the one with the widest prices.
Appeal is obvious: a longshot at a big number, held through a season. The cost is equally obvious once stated. Your stake is committed for five months, and a season-ending injury to one player ends the bet with no refund mechanism of any kind.
Thirty-two teams start and one wins. That is the market in a sentence, and it explains why the prices look generous.
Conference and Division Winners
Shorter-dated, smaller fields, fewer variables.
A division winner market prices four teams against each other instead of 32, which makes it considerably more tractable for anyone with a genuine read on a specific division. Conference winner sits between the two in difficulty.
These also resolve earlier than the outright, so the capital comes back sooner if the bet loses.
Season Win Totals
The most analytically approachable futures market on the board, and the one that gets least attention.
A win total prices one team against a number instead of against a field. Will this team win more or fewer than nine and a half games? That is a question about schedule strength, roster continuity and injury luck for a single organisation, which is a far smaller problem than modelling an entire conference.
The over and under are usually priced close to even money, so the margin is thinner than on the longer-shot markets, and the outcome depends on a season's accumulation, not a single result.
Award Markets
MVP, Offensive Player of the Year and similar. The widest margins of the four.
These concentrate on a handful of plausible candidates, which sounds tractable and is not, because award voting incorporates narrative and team success alongside individual production. They are also priced by books that know the market is driven by sentiment more than analysis.
Interesting to hold, expensive to buy.
The Liquidity Problem Nobody Mentions
Here is the practical constraint that separates futures from every other bet you place.
A match bet resolves in three hours. A futures bet resolves in five months, and during that time your stake is unavailable. Most books do not offer cash out on futures markets, so there is generally no exit: the position runs to settlement whether your view has changed or not.
That means a futures stake should be sized as money you are content to have locked up until February. Not money you might want back in November. The bet is not liquid, and treating it as though it were is how people end up depositing again to cover positions they cannot unwind.
Three Drivers of Price Movement
Three drivers, and only one of them is results.
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Results are the obvious one. A team winning changes its price, and the price compression accelerates as the field narrows.
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Injury news moves futures markets more sharply than it moves single-game lines, because a quarterback lost in October affects every remaining game, not one. A futures price can move substantially on a Wednesday injury report with no football played.
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Schedule strength matters as the season progresses. A team sitting at 6-2 with an easy remaining slate is priced differently from a 6-2 team facing four contenders, and that distinction is invisible in the record alone.
The same pattern appears in football generally, where early-season odds move for reasons that have nothing to do with the table.
Placing Them
Futures need a board that carries them properly, which not every crypto sportsbook does.
Dexsport publishes over 100 markets on major matches, and its event-tiered limits rise for major competitions, which matters for futures because they are typically capped lower than match markets.
Being non-custodial, settled funds return to a wallet you hold, and its $1 minimum makes it practical to take several small futures positions instead of one large one.
That last point is the sensible structure for this market: spreading a modest total across three or four positions is a better shape than concentrating on one longshot, given that most futures bets lose. Outright and long-shot markets work the same way in other sports.
What Is Still Open
The pre-season window is closed, and the in-season one is open.
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Win totals are still live and still the most tractable market on the board
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Division winners reprice weekly as records separate
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The outright market compresses sharply once the playoff field is set in January
A position taken now is a position taken before the largest single repricing event of the cycle.
Confirm what is legal where you live, keep stakes within a set budget, and play only if you are of legal age, since KYC or AML checks may apply.
Responsible gambling has a specific angle here: a futures position running for months keeps a betting account live through a whole season, and a stake you cannot withdraw is a stake still in play.
Disclaimer: The information here is provided for general purposes only and is not legal, tax, investment, or financial advice, and nothing here is a betting tip or prediction. Market availability, cash-out policies and limits vary by operator and change, so read the current rules before placing a futures bet. Betting carries risk, and rules vary by country, so check the law where you live. Please gamble responsibly, within your means, and only if you are of legal age.
