U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, far exceeding economists’ forecast for a 56,000 gain. The unemployment rate held unchanged at 4.1%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Following the jobs report, expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike rose. CME FedWatch put the probability at 60.4% on Friday, up from 49.4% Thursday and 57% a week earlier, according to the Associated Press.
Data Snapshot
| Metric | Current | Previous | Change | Period | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm payroll employment | 162,000 | 21,000 in July 2026 | — | August 2026 | September 4, 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Economists’ payroll forecast | 56,000 | — | — | August 2026 forecast | September 4, 2026 | Reuters |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.1% in July 2026 | unchanged | August 2026 | September 4, 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| September Fed rate-hike probability | 60.4% | 49.4% Thursday; 57% a week ago | — | September 2026 meeting | September 4, 2026 | Associated Press |
| June and July payroll revisions combined | 55,000 higher than previously reported | — | — | June–July 2026 | September 4, 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics |
August payroll gain follows a 21,000 increase in July
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 162,000 increase in total nonfarm payroll employment in August, following a 21,000 gain in July.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an August increase of 56,000. Reuters reported that expectation before the release.
The BLS revised June and July payroll employment totals up by a combined 55,000 from previously reported levels. The figures thus included both the August increase and a higher combined base for the prior two months; the release did not specify a single cause for the overall gain.
Food services and local government education drove disclosed gains
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 59,000-job increase in food services and drinking places in August.
Local government education also added 42,000 jobs, according to the BLS. Together, the disclosed gains included service-sector establishments and local public education.
CME FedWatch prices a 60.4% chance of a September rate hike
Markets responded to the payroll surprise by increasing the implied likelihood of a September rate hike. CME FedWatch’s 60.4% reading on Friday represented an 11 percentage-point increase from Thursday’s 49.4% and was also above the 57% level recorded a week earlier, according to the Associated Press.
The 4.1% unemployment rate was unchanged from July, the BLS said. Alongside the stronger payroll reading, that steady rate formed the core labor-market context available to traders assessing the September meeting.
FedWatch probabilities reflect market pricing and can change before the meeting; they are not a statement of the Federal Reserve’s decision. For now, the concrete shift following the jobs report was from 49.4% Thursday to 60.4% Friday.
