Ripple released up to 1 billion XRP from escrow on October 1, putting a fresh supply event in front of a market trading near a technical decision point. The gross unlock does not establish that the full amount will be sold, but it creates a near-term overhang that traders will weigh against demand and price structure. Printhereum reported the release on October 1.
XRP/USD was quoted at $1.5019 on the same date, according to Investing.com historical data. That places the token virtually on top of the nearest published daily resistance at $1.5010, while the first support sits at $1.4852. The narrow gap between those levels makes the immediate reaction more consequential than the escrow headline alone.
There is constructive demand context behind the chart. U.S. spot XRP ETFs had logged about $170 million of inflows over an 11-session run, taking reported cumulative inflows since launch to $1.68 billion, CoinDesk reported. The question for the XRP price prediction after the escrow unlock is whether that backdrop can help price hold nearby support, or whether fading short-term momentum opens the path toward the $1.44 area.
XRP daily indicators show a bullish trend but fading short-term momentum
The daily trend readings remain more constructive than the short-term momentum signal. XRP was above both its 50-period and 200-period exponential moving averages on October 1, a setup published by CoinLore as bullish. Holding above both averages suggests that the broader daily structure has not yet broken down.
Momentum is less decisive. Daily RSI(14) was 55.80, a neutral reading that CoinLore characterized as a slight sell signal. It is neither an overbought reading that would independently point to a sharp reversal nor an oversold one that would make a support rebound technically compelling by itself.
The MACD carries the more cautionary near-term message. Its reading was 0.046647 against a 0.048340 signal line, leaving MACD below the signal line and producing a bearish, or sell, signal on the daily timeframe. That does not negate the moving-average trend, but it means a move through resistance would need to overcome weakening momentum rather than simply extend a clean upswing.
Volatility leaves room for a more forceful move in either direction. XRP remained inside daily Bollinger Bands spanning $1.26 on the lower side to $1.62 on the upper side; the band width was 25.42%, with no major overextension indicated. Average true range was 5.3% of the current price, which the source characterized as elevated volatility. In practical terms, the proximity of spot to $1.5010 should not be mistaken for a settled breakout while those conditions persist.
XRP levels: $1.5010 resistance and the support path toward $1.44
At $1.5019, XRP was only marginally above the closest daily resistance level of $1.5010. The published level map says a close above $1.5010 would strengthen the bullish case, making that close and the market's ability to remain above it more useful confirmation than a brief intraday trade beyond the threshold.
| Level | Role | What it would signal |
|---|---|---|
| $1.5010 | Nearest daily resistance | A close above it would strengthen the bullish case. |
| $1.6185 | Second resistance | Next published upside level if $1.5010 is cleared and held. |
| $1.6999 | Third resistance | Further upside reference after the first two resistance levels. |
| $1.4852 | Nearest daily support | First level to hold if XRP is rejected around $1.5010. |
| $1.4255 | Second daily support | Next published downside level if $1.4852 fails. |
| $1.3699 | Third daily support | Deeper support reference if selling extends below $1.4255. |
The resistance and support levels come from Coinotag's October 1 daily map, which combines pivot, Fibonacci, moving-average and volume-profile clustering: $1.5010, $1.6185 and $1.6999 overhead, and $1.4852, $1.4255 and $1.3699 below.
For the upside path, XRP would first need to establish itself above $1.5010. That would put $1.6185 into view as the next supplied resistance, followed conditionally by $1.6999. The current Bollinger upper band of $1.62 lies close to that second resistance, underscoring that the $1.6185 area is a potentially consequential test rather than an automatic continuation point.
For the downside path, $1.4852 is the immediate line to watch. A failure there would bring $1.4255 into focus, placing the editor's $1.44 scenario within the zone between the first and second published supports. Earlier market commentary also identified $1.44-$1.45 as an important support area after XRP's prior breakout, with $1.50 as nearby resistance, according to CoinDesk. The $1.44 figure is therefore best treated as a support-zone test, not as a standalone published pivot level. Below $1.4255, $1.3699 is the next level supplied by the current daily map.
XRP price prediction after the escrow unlock: whether $1.44 holds
The conditional near-term outlook is balanced but fragile. The escrow unlock introduces a supply-overhang test at the same time XRP is pressing against $1.5010 resistance. Since the reported release is a gross amount rather than evidence of actual market sales, it does not by itself establish a bearish outcome. Price response around the first resistance and support levels is the clearer gauge.
A $1.44 retest becomes a credible scenario if XRP is rejected near $1.5010 and subsequently loses $1.4852. Under that sequence, $1.4255 is the next published support, and the historically cited $1.44-$1.45 area sits naturally within the resulting downside zone. The bearish MACD signal and 5.3% ATR reading make such a move plausible as a technical scenario, particularly if volatility expands.
That case weakens if XRP can close above and hold $1.5010. Such action would align price with the still-bullish moving-average structure and shift attention to $1.6185, rather than the lower supports. A neutral RSI leaves room for that outcome, although MACD remaining below its signal line means the chart has not yet delivered fully aligned bullish momentum.
The broader backdrop offers offsetting support to the supply concern. In addition to the reported ETF inflow streak, Ripple said a March 2026 joint SEC-CFTC interpretation named XRP a digital commodity, a development the company described as adding regulatory clarity. Ripple detailed that interpretation in September. Neither factor guarantees that price absorbs the escrow release, but both distinguish the present setup from one driven solely by technical weakness.
For now, $1.44 is not the base case implied by spot sitting around $1.5010; it is the decisive downside test if $1.4852 gives way. A sustained recovery above $1.5010 would weaken that prediction, while a break beneath $1.4255 would leave the $1.44 zone behind and put $1.3699 in focus. Separately, XRPL tokenized-asset and RLUSD balances averaged about $4.26 billion, up from $99 million six quarters earlier, even as daily active and new accounts declined year over year, CoinDesk reported—a mixed network picture that mirrors the chart's split signals.
